You can’t compare the probability of dying from AstraZeneca to no outbreak and not dying from COVID-19
Both ATAGI and the Qld CHO have made confusing statements about the risk of COVID-19 vs AstraZeneca. While it is true that currently the death rate of COVID-19 is essentially zero, if there *is* an outbreak that calculus will change very quickly. By that time it may be too late for many of us to get immunised.
We need to get vaccinated before an outbreak. The rate of death right now is largely irrelevant. If we had a UK-sized outbreak, your death rate would be between 4 to 20X higher than taking AstraZeneca. This is scary because:
- Most of their outbreak happened while locked down
- They weren’t dealing with Delta, which is far more transmissible.
AstraZeneca death estimate
The risk of death for AstraZeneca is quite a rough estimate, because we’ve never had a death for someone younger than 48 and the results from overseas had the AstraZeneca group dying at a much lower rate (all cause mortality) than what they would expect, likely because the group being immunised had to not have an immediate illness i.e. they were less sick than the average.
There’s a 1 in 1,000,000 chance of a blood clot fatality if you get AstraZeneca, based on ATAGI estimates here. 30 in 1,000,000 shots end up with blood clots, 2 in 60 clots end in death. 30*2/60 = 1 in 1,000,000 chance of dying from AstraZeneca.
Death rate in a an outbreak
In the UK, 7% of people were infected, mostly during the lockdown. The death rate from COVID-19 in 20–30 yos was 63 per 1,000,000 people. They had 39 people aged 20–30yo die in January alone (source: Table 2). If we had a UK-sized outbreak, the deaths (including infected and non-infected) would be about 63*0.07 = 4.4 in 1,000,000 for 20–30yo.
If you are 30–40yo, the rate is even worse. 289 in 1,000,000 chance of dying of COVID-19 if infected. 289*0.07 = 20 in 1,000,000 chance of dying from COVID-19.
That’s also ignoring that young people are infected at a far higher rate than the population average. This is a lower estimate for a UK-sized outbreak with a less transmissible variant of COVID-19.
But what about long-term impacts from blood clots?
ATAGI was concerned about the long-term impact of the 60 in 1,000,000 cases of clotting, not just death. While it is justified to think about this, it is worth considering that even the best cases estimates (as measured by Australian researchers) show that around 5% of people (50,000 in 1,000,000) are still suffering COVID-19 symptoms more than 3 months of infection.
AstraZeneca is objectively safe
Even though deaths in the young are so rare in AstraZeneca that we can’t even tell if deaths will happen in the young, the estimates that we do have is a 1 in 1,000,000, also known as a micromort. This is a very small chance of death. For example, a person doing their daily commute by car will be exposed to 1 micromort in around 1–2 weeks of commuting. Most people are routinely exposed to far greater risks in their life than this vaccine. You can see other micromort examples here.
I can just wait for Pfizer
Well… you can. But the federal government has not released dates for eligibility for 20–40yos. In press interviews they are talking about Pfizer supply jumping up in September and October. That means you will be spending several winter months unprotected, hoping that everyone does the right thing, no mistakes are made in hotel quarantine and at our ports, everyone gets a test when they feel sick and that the latest strain isn’t going to break through whatever protections we have in place.